Mexico: AMLO's win buoys consumer confidence through August

Consumer sentiment held up in August, with the seasonally-adjusted consumer confidence index published by INEGI ticking down only marginally from July’s post-election decade high 102.0 points (previously reported: 101.7 points) to 101.8 points. August’s print overshot market expectations. Until July, sentiment had been stuck below the 100-point threshold for just over ten years.

August’s reading was again seen as spillover from the landslide election victory of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) on 1 July. Three of the index’s five components remained above the 100-point threshold in August; across-the-board expectations for the future were again strongly optimistic—a likely nod to AMLO’s left-wing platform—while views on present conditions at the household level ticked up. On the other hand, assessments of present macroeconomic conditions became more downbeat and consumers noted they were less willing than a month earlier to make big-ticket purchases.

Mexico Private Consumption Forecast

Panelists participating in this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect private consumption to grow 2.7% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. For 2019, the panel sees private consumption expanding 2.6%.