Malaysia Trade November 2019

Malaysia

Malaysia: Exports continue downturn midway through Q4

January 3, 2020

Merchandise exports shrank 4.6% year-on-year in USD terms in November, moderating from the 7.5% decline registered in October. In ringgit terms, exports fell 5.5% in November, softening from October’s 6.7% drop but underwhelming market expectations of a weaker 4.4% contraction.

The continued downturn came on the back of plunging exports of electrical and electronic products, and refined petroleum products, while palm oil shipments fell at a softer clip. Looking at Malaysia’s top export markets, demand from ASEAN, Hong Kong and Singapore declined in the month, whereas exports to the U.S. and China increased.

Imports, meanwhile, fell 2.7% year-on-year in USD terms in November, improving from the 9.5% contraction in October. The decline was mainly attributable to a drop in imports of capital goods, while intermediate goods and consumer goods imports both rebounded in the month.

As the contraction in imports softened, the trade surplus consequently shrank to USD 1.6 billion in November from the USD 4.1 billion surplus in October (November 2018: USD 2.0 billion). Meanwhile, the 12-month moving sum of the trade surplus edged down to USD 32.8 billion in November from October’s USD 33.2 billion sum.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to grow 1.9% and imports to expand 2.5% in 2020, with the trade surplus reaching USD 34.3 billion. In 2021, our panelists see export and import growth at 6.8% and 8.2% respectively, with the trade surplus narrowing to USD 33.8 billion.


Author:, Economist

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Malaysia Trade12m November 2019 0

Note: 12-month trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports.
Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia (DSM) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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