Macedonia Economic Forecast

Macedonia Economic Outlook

February 6, 2018

The economy performed modestly in the months following a return to growth in the third quarter. In the January-to-November period, average wages increased year-on-year in real terms. This likely boosted confidence in the retail sector, which reported favorable conditions in Q4. Moreover, although industrial production decreased year-on-year in December, overall industrial production swung to growth in Q4 after contracting in the Q3. In recent weeks, the governments of Macedonia and Greece have been engaged in resolving their dispute over Macedonia’s official state name, which would boost its chances of joining the EU. On 2 February, partly thanks to this, Fitch Ratings affirmed Macedonia’s long-term debt rating at BB and upgraded the outlook from negative to positive.

Macedonia Economic Growth

Improved political stability and relatively accommodative monetary policy should support the economy this year. However, despite government efforts to rein in the high fiscal deficit, it will remain a concern. Our panelists expect economic growth of 3.0% in 2018, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.3% in 2019.

Macedonia Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)2.12.12.12.12.1
GDP per capita (USD)4,7265,1285,6254,8825,287
GDP per capita (EUR)3,6783,9264,1384,3754,756
GDP (USD bn)9.710.611.610.111.0
GDP (EUR bn)7.68.18.69.19.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-0.52.93.53.92.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.22.12.13.74.2
Investment (annual variation in %)10.20.513.13.6-4.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-2.83.24.84.93.4
Unemployment Rate31.029.028.026.123.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.8-3.8-4.2-3.5-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.734.038.138.238.7
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)0.50.27.27.66.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.32.8-0.3-0.3-0.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.353.382.501.762.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)47.2044.6750.6156.5558.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)47.9546.5446.4255.4355.69
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)62.2961.4061.2261.4161.52
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)61.6161.8161.5761.5061.61
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.3-1.7-0.6-2.0-3.1
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.3-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.3
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.0-1.9-1.8-1.8-1.9
Exports (EUR billion)2.32.42.73.03.4
Imports (EUR billion)4.44.34.54.85.2
Exports (annual variation in %)1.53.910.912.311.6
Imports (annual variation in %)1.53.910.97.78.0
International Reserves (EUR)1.91.82.22.12.4
External Debt (% of GDP)66.463.662.168.7-  

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Macedonia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate49.93-0.56 %Feb 22
Stock Market0.10.0 %Feb 22

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