Macedonia Economic Forecast

Macedonia Economic Outlook

March 5, 2019

Economic momentum should have gained ground in Q4 2018. Tourist arrivals continued to increase at a solid pace in December. Likewise, upbeat retail sales in December and throughout the quarter suggest private consumption should have made solid gains in the quarter. Moreover, the average quarterly growth of industrial production surpassed that of Q3, while construction activity recovered in Q4. In political news, with the dispute with Greece finally in the rear-view mirror, the country hopes to open accession talks with the EU this year. However, it will need to make meaningful progress on reforms to accelerate the process.

Macedonia Economic Growth

Economic growth is set to accelerate in 2019 as investment recovers and household spending picks up. Moreover, EU-accession talks should boost investor confidence and attract more FDI. Sluggish growth in the Euro-area could dampen domestic growth prospects, however. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 2.9% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2020

Macedonia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)2.12.12.12.12.1
GDP per capita (USD)5,1285,6254,8825,2105,530
GDP per capita (EUR)3,9214,1384,3814,6874,847
GDP (USD bn)10.611.610.110.811.5
GDP (EUR bn)8.18.69.19.710.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.93.83.92.90.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.92.14.53.12.9
Investment (annual variation in %)0.510.78.313.3-4.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.24.84.93.40.2
Unemployment Rate29.028.026.123.722.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.8-4.2-3.5-2.7-2.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)40.345.846.648.547.6
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)0.27.27.66.14.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.8-0.3-0.3-0.21.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.253.253.253.753.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)44.6750.6156.5558.5051.28
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)46.5446.4255.4355.6954.63
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)61.4061.2261.4161.5261.53
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)61.8161.5761.5061.6161.60
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.7-0.6-1.9-2.8-1.1
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.10.0-0.2-0.3-0.1
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.9-1.8-1.8-1.8-1.8
Exports (EUR billion)2.42.73.03.54.0
Imports (EUR billion)4.34.54.85.35.8
Exports (annual variation in %)3.910.912.614.016.8
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.03.87.78.610.5
International Reserves (EUR)2.02.42.32.62.3
External Debt (% of GDP)63.662.166.968.3-  

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Macedonia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate54.75-0.56 %Mar 11
Stock Market0.10.0 %Nov 26

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