Macedonia Economic Forecast

Macedonia Economic Outlook

May 7, 2019

Economic momentum likely carried over into the first quarter of the year from Q4 2018’s robust outturn. Industrial production grew healthily throughout Q1, which fed through to a strong rise in merchandise exports in January–February. Tourism recovered in February and, consequently, the number of tourist arrivals for January and February rose in annual terms. Nevertheless, retail sales weakened throughout the quarter, hinting at softer private consumption in Q1. On the political front, the pro-Western candidate Stevo Pendarovski was voted in as the country’s new president on 5 May. As the presidential role is primarily ceremonial, the government’s economic priorities are unlikely to change significantly.

Macedonia Economic Growth

The economy should gain ground in 2019. Tailwinds from potential progress on the EU-accession agenda should foster greater FDI inflows and improve the business climate, which should in turn support the recovery in investment. Meanwhile consumer spending will likely remain strong. Economic growth could be weighed on by a structural slowdown in the EU, however. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 3.0% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.2% in 2020.

Macedonia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)2.12.12.12.12.1
GDP per capita (USD)5,1285,6254,8825,2105,530
GDP per capita (EUR)3,9214,1384,3814,6874,847
GDP (USD bn)10.611.610.110.811.5
GDP (EUR bn)8.18.69.19.710.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.93.83.92.90.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.92.14.53.12.9
Investment (annual variation in %)0.510.78.313.3-4.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.24.84.93.40.2
Unemployment Rate29.028.026.123.722.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.8-4.2-3.5-2.7-2.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)40.345.846.648.547.6
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)0.27.27.66.14.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.8-0.3-0.3-0.21.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.253.253.253.753.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)44.6750.6156.5558.5051.28
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)46.5446.4255.4355.6954.63
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)61.4061.2261.4161.5261.53
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)61.8161.5761.5061.6161.60
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.7-0.6-1.9-2.8-1.1
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.10.0-0.2-0.3-0.1
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.9-1.8-1.8-1.8-1.8
Exports (EUR billion)2.42.73.03.54.0
Imports (EUR billion)4.34.54.85.35.8
Exports (annual variation in %)3.910.912.614.016.8
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.03.87.78.610.5
International Reserves (EUR)2.02.42.32.62.3
External Debt (% of GDP)63.662.166.968.3-  

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Macedonia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate54.77-0.56 %May 13
Stock Market0.10.0 %Nov 26

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