Macedonia Economic Forecast

Macedonia Economic Outlook

November 28, 2017

Amid higher political stability following the ruling party’s municipal electoral wins in October, recent data points to economic activity firming up towards year-end. According to the Statistical Institute, business confidence in the manufacturing industry improved in October, and tourism was strong in September. Industrial production swung to an expansion in September compared to the same month last year on increased manufacturing output. Exports rose in January-to-September against the same period in 2016, led by machinery and transport equipment shipments. On 22 November, the IMF noted how the formation of the new government earlier this year presents an opportunity to revive policy reforms, which would support Macedonia’s bid for EU membership.

Macedonia Economic Growth

The economy should be boosted by stronger domestic demand next year as investor sentiment increases on greater political stability. However, Macedonia’s history of political turbulence will continue to represent a risk to its economic outlook. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP growing 3.2% in 2018, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2019, the panel foresees a 3.4% expansion.

Macedonia Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)2.12.12.12.12.1
GDP per capita (USD)4,7265,1285,6254,8825,287
GDP per capita (EUR)3,6783,9264,1384,3754,756
GDP (USD bn)9.710.611.610.111.0
GDP (EUR bn)7.68.18.69.19.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-0.52.93.53.92.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.22.12.13.74.2
Investment (annual variation in %)10.20.513.13.6-4.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-2.83.24.84.93.4
Unemployment Rate31.029.028.026.123.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.8-3.8-4.2-3.5-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.734.038.138.238.7
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)0.50.27.27.66.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.32.8-0.3-0.3-0.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.353.382.501.762.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)47.2044.6750.6156.5558.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)47.9546.5446.4255.4355.69
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)62.2961.4061.2261.4161.52
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)61.6161.8161.5761.5061.61
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.3-1.7-0.6-2.0-3.1
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.3-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.3
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.0-1.9-1.8-1.8-1.9
Exports (EUR billion)2.32.42.73.03.4
Imports (EUR billion)4.44.34.54.85.2
Exports (annual variation in %)1.53.910.912.311.6
Imports (annual variation in %)1.53.910.97.78.0
International Reserves (EUR)1.91.82.22.12.4
External Debt (% of GDP)66.463.662.168.7-  

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Macedonia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate52.20-0.56 %Dec 06
Stock Market0.10.0 %Dec 06

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