Lithuania GDP Q1 2021

Lithuania

Lithuania: GDP returns to growth in Q1

June 1, 2021

According to a second estimate released on 1 June, GDP rose 1.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2021, contrasting the 1.2% drop tallied in Q4 2020. The reading was revised up from the preliminary estimate of a 1.0% expansion. Meanwhile, in seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms, GDP grew 2.0% (Q4: -0.3% s.a. qoq).

The first quarter’s annual improvement came despite stricter measures implemented throughout the quarter in order to curb the spread of new Covid-19 infections. The reading was driven by a rebound in private consumption, which grew 0.6% annually in Q1 after falling 1.3% in Q4 2020. However, government spending swung to contraction, falling at the sharpest rate in three years (Q1: -0.3% yoy; Q4: +1.1% yoy), while fixed investment growth slowed to 6.3% year-on-year in the quarter, following Q4’s 9.0% surge.

On the external front, growth in exports of goods and services lost momentum in Q4, moderating to 3.6% on an annual basis (Q4: +5.4% yoy). Meanwhile, imports rose 4.0% annually, accelerating from the previous quarter’s 0.9% uptick.

The economy is set to expand robustly this year following 2020’s mild contraction. A quick vaccination campaign at home, coupled with reopening economies abroad, will likely buttress growth. However, uncertainty regarding the development of the health crisis dampens the outlook.

FocusEconomics analysts see the economy rebounding and growing 3.8% in 2021, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2022, the economy is expected to grow 3.3%.


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Lithuania GDP Q1  2021 2

Note: Year-on year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Statistics Lithuania and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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