Laos Economic Forecast

Laos Economic Outlook

July 17, 2018

According to government projections, the economy grew 6.7% in H1 on strong manufacturing and services sectors, likely among the fastest expansions in the region. On the downside, revenues have fallen short of budgeted estimates so far this year, constraining spending and making it difficult to reduce the elevated budget deficit. In addition, the already-high current account deficit rose further in Q1 in year-on-year terms, with FX reserves dipping. During a staff visit earlier this year, the IMF highlighted the fiscal and external situations as key weaknesses, and urged greater fiscal consolidation.

Laos Economic Growth

Growth should remain elevated this year, on the back of robust FDI, strong regional growth and greater hydroelectricity generation. However, large twin deficits and low international reserves pose downside risks. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 6.8% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.8% again in 2019.

Laos Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)6.36.46.56.66.7
GDP per capita (USD)1,8952,0752,2172,400-  
GDP (USD bn)11.913.314.415.8-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.07.67.37.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.0-4.1-2.4-4.7-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)54.358.658.158.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.44.11.31.60.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.256.255.635.315.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)7,9388,0358,1228,1618,196
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)7,8398,0488,1358,1338,254
Current Account (% of GDP)-28.4-20.0-18.0-12.0-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.4-2.7-2.6-1.9-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-0.8-1.6-2.5-1.4-  
Exports (USD billion)2.32.72.83.4-  
Imports (USD billion)3.14.35.24.7-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-0.317.64.021.1-  
Imports (annual variation in %)0.938.622.5-9.4-  
International Reserves (USD)0.70.91.10.91.3
External Debt (% of GDP)82.085.990.489.6-  

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Laos Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate8,4250.31 %Jul 17

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