Korea Trade Balance August 2020

Korea

Korea: Merchandise exports decline at sharp rate in August, although underlying picture is more positive

September 1, 2020

Merchandise exports fell 9.9% in annual terms in August (July: -7.1% year-on-year) amid still-tepid external demand. However, a lower number of working days compared to the same month last year was also behind the decline, and daily exports fell a mere 3.8%—the softest decline since the beginning of the Covid-19 outbreak. Meanwhile, merchandise imports collapsed 16.3% over the same month last year in August (July: -11.6% yoy), marking the sharpest drop since May. As a result, the merchandise trade balance recorded a USD 4.1 billion surplus in August, remaining unchanged from July. Lastly, the trend improved, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 36.4 billion surplus in August, compared to the USD 33.9 billion surplus in July.

On August’s reading, and their outlook for exports ahead, analysts at Nomura commented:

“The August exports data reaffirm that two trends are underway. First, the rise in average daily exports confirms the gradual improvement in the export cycle. We expect this uptrend to continue. […] Second, much of the demand for Korea’s exports is driven by structural shifts as rising demand for IT and biohealth products, reflecting a rapid adoption of work from home, rising digitisation and building of health capacity to prepare for sporadic surges in infection rates. […] We maintain our view that the gradual recovery of Korea’s export growth will sustain in Q3, although there remains high uncertainty surrounding the path of the global economic cycle.”

Our panelists see merchandise exports falling 6.7% and imports decreasing 9.2% in 2020, bringing the trade surplus to USD 48.9 billion. In 2021, exports are projected to increase 9.4% and imports to rise 7.9%, with a trade surplus of USD 60.1 billion.


Author:, Junior Economist

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Korea Trade Balance Chart


Korea Trade12m August 20 20

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual average variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports.
Source: Korean Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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