Kenya GDP Q3 2021

Kenya

Kenya: GDP growth loses momentum in Q3

December 31, 2021

The economy grew at a softer rate in the third quarter, with GDP expanding 9.9% year-on-year (Q2: +12.0% yoy), as Covid-19 curbs, amid high numbers of cases, weighed on activity.

Looking at the details of the release, the agricultural sector contracted 1.8% annually in the third quarter—a steeper drop than the second quarter's 0.7% decrease and marking the largest contraction since Q4 2017. Meanwhile, growth in the retail and wholesale trade sector slowed to 6.9% in Q3, marking the worst reading since Q4 2020 (Q2: +9.5% yoy). Moreover, among others, growth also moderated in the electricity and water supply sector (Q3: +4.5% yoy; Q2: +5.2% yoy), the information and communication sector (Q3: +5.8% yoy; Q2: +25.3% yoy) and the financial and insurance sector (Q3: +6.7% yoy; Q2: +12.3% yoy).

More positively, activity picked up pace in the mining and quarrying sector (Q3: +25.1% yoy; Q2: +17.7% yoy) and the accommodation and restaurant sector (Q3: +24.8% yoy; Q2: +9.4% yoy), while the manufacturing sector was steady, growing 9.4% in Q3 (Q2: +9.4% yoy).

Meanwhile, GDP expanded 1.7% in seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms in Q3, slowing from the prior quarter’s 2.1% growth.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP growth at 5.4% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. Panelists forecast GDP growth to come in at 5.4% in 2023.


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Kenya GDP Q3  2021

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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