Kazakhstan Monetary Policy September 2022

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan: Central bank maintains policy

September 5, 2022

At its latest meeting on 5 September, the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) maintained its base rate at 14.50%, following its decision to hike by 50 basis points in late July. Meanwhile, the interest rate corridor was kept at plus or minus 1.0 percentage points.

The NBK argued that the current rate was sufficient to ensure the stability of the financial market and allow consumers and businesses to keep saving. Moreover, it said that the tightening undertaken since January 2022 had not yet fully seeped into the economy, necessitating additional time to assess its impact.

Inflation accelerated to 16.1% in August from 15.0% in July, and the median inflation expectation for the year ahead rose to 16.5% in August. The NBK outlined supply chain disruptions, a weakening tenge against the ruble and government spending as the main inflation drivers.

Looking ahead, our panel forecasts more than 25 basis points of tightening by end-2022. The NBK considers that inflation will reach 16.0–8.0% by the end of the year. The Bank stated that future monetary policy decisions would be contingent on the accuracy of its inflation forecasts and on the balance of risks in the global and domestic economies.

The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled to take place on 24 October.

FocusEconomics Consensus panelists see the base rate ending 2022 at 14.90%, and 2023 at 11.36%.


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