Kazakhstan:
Outlook: Our panel expects price pressures to have peaked in Q2, after which they see the effect of record-high interest rates permeating through the real economy and driving inflation down in turn.
Still, inflation should accelerate in 2025 as a whole from 2024, remaining among the highest in the Commonwealth of Independent States and averaging broadly double the Central Bank’s target. Significant tailwinds include VAT hikes, loose fiscal policy, utility reforms, sky-high inflation in key trading partner Russia and a weak tenge driving up imported inflation.