Mount Fuji, Japan

Japan Trade April 2025

Japan: Exports lose further steam in April

Latest reading: Yen-denominated merchandise exports increased 2.0% annually in April. The print was in line with market expectations and was down from March’s 4.0% increase.

Meanwhile, yen-denominated merchandise imports shrank 2.2% in April, flipping from March’s 1.9% rise.

Overall, the yen-denominated merchandise trade balance switched to a JPY 0.1 trillion deficit from the previous month’s near JPY 0.6 trillion surplus, which had been one of the strongest figures in the last four years.

Outlook: Since Trump announced “reciprocal” tariffs on 2 April, our panelists have cut their forecasts for Japan’s growth of exports of goods and services in 2025 by 0.9 percentage points.

Still, exports are still seen expanding more quickly than in 2024, boosted by higher demand for IT products, a Japanese forte. Moreover, Japan and the U.S. remain locked in trade talks, with the leaders of both countries set to meet in person at the G7 summit in Alberta during 15–17 June.

Panelist insight: Nomura’s Yuki Kodera and Kyohei Morita said:

“After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, we estimate that real goods exports were up +0.5% m-m in April and that real goods imports were up +2.8%. April real exports were also 1.2% higher than the Jan–Mar average and real imports were 2.0% higher. We forecast (as of 16 May) real exports (goods and services) in the Apr–Jun GDP statistics up 0.2% q-q and real imports down 0.5%, with external demand (net exports = exports – imports) contributing +0.1ppt q-q to real GDP growth.”

Free sample report

Access essential information in the shortest time possible. FocusEconomics provide hundreds of consensus forecast reports from the most reputable economic research authorities in the world.
Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest X Download Fullscreen