Japan: Merchandise exports fall further in August
Latest reading: In August, the trade balance was JPY -0.2 trillion, following a JPY -0.1 trillion reading in the prior month. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to JPY -3.4 trillion.
Yen-denominated exports were down 0.1% in year-on-year terms in August, coming on the back of a 2.6% fall in the prior month. Despite being less severe than expected by economists, the decline was the fourth in a row. Shipments to the U.S. shrank at the quickest rate in more than four years, pointing toward the impact of Trump’s tariffs, especially on automobile sales.
Yen-denominated imports were down 5.2% in year-on-year terms in August, coming on the back of a 7.4% decline in the previous month.
Panelist insight: Nomura analysts said:
“After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, we estimate that real goods exports were down 4.1% m-m in August and that real goods imports were up 1.2%. Average real exports in Jul–Aug were down 4.1% versus the Apr–Jun average, while real imports were down 5.0%.”