Japan: Industrial production sharply rebounds in October, recovering from natural disaster disruptions
November 30, 2018
Industrial production shot up 2.9% on a month-on-month and seasonally-adjusted basis in October, contrasting September’s revised 0.4% decline (previously reported: -1.1% month-on-month)—which came on the back of a wave of natural disasters that hit the country in the month. The print vastly exceeded the 1.2% rise expected by market analysts, and marked the best monthly performance since January 2015, though it was mostly due to a particularly low base effect.
The categories that drove the month-on-month increase were general-purpose and business-oriented machinery; electronic parts and devices; and motor vehicles. Higher output for these categories was partially offset by decreases in production machinery and petroleum and coal products.
On an annual basis, industrial output rose 4.2% in October, contrasting the 2.5% fall logged in September. Annual average growth in industrial production was stable at September’s 1.5% in October, the lowest level registered since April 2017.
Japan Industrial Production Forecast
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see industrial production rising 2.0% in 2019, which is down 0.3 percentage points over the previous month’s projection. For 2020 the panel expects industrial production to expand 1.3%.
Author: Joffrey Simonet, Economist