Italy: Inflation rises in September from the prior month
Latest reading: Harmonized consumer prices were up 1.8% on a year-on-year basis in September, following a 1.6% rise in the previous month, and remaining below the ECB’s 2.0% inflation target for the fifth consecutive month.
Relative to the previous month’s data, there were higher price pressures for transportation (+0.3% on a year-on-year basis vs -0.2% in August) and restaurants and hotels (+3.7% vs +3.2% in August). In contrast, there were reduced price pressures for food and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.7% vs +4.2% in August), housing and utilities (-1.0% vs -0.8% in August) and recreation (+0.9% vs +1.6% in August).
Meanwhile, consumer prices rose 1.6% in annual terms in September, unchanged from the previous month’s reading.
Lastly, harmonized consumer prices were up 1.29% in September on a month-on-month basis, following a 0.24% fall in the prior month.
Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, ING’s Paolo Pizzoli stated:
“Wage growth, a powerful driver of services inflation, has also cooled […], despite a low unemployment rate. This is slowing the recovery in the purchasing power gap, which widened markedly over 2022 and 2023, and yet remains to be filled. Against a backdrop which remains uncertain, an imminent acceleration in private consumption, inducing excess demand inflation, seems unlikely. Pricing intentions from business surveys are also signalling a prudent pricing approach expected over the next few months, with no relevant deviation from current policies in any direction.”