Italy: Inflation softens in September following four consecutive months of acceleration
October 16, 2018
According to revised data released by the National Statistical Institute (ISTAT) on 16 October, consumer prices dropped a revised 0.5% month-on-month in September (previously reported: -0.4% month-on-month), contrasting August’s 0.4% increase. The figure largely reflected lower prices for services related to transport, and recreation and culture—mainly attributable to seasonal factors—which were partially offset by higher prices for education, and clothing and footwear. Meanwhile, inflation came in at a revised 1.4% in September (previously reported: 1.5%), below August’s 1.6% print and marking the first deceleration in five months.
Core consumer prices, which exclude more volatile categories such as unprocessed food and energy, dropped 0.7% month-on-month in September, contrasting August’s 0.5% rise. Meanwhile, core inflation inched down from August’s 0.8% to 0.7% in September, and harmonized inflation dropped to 1.5% in September from the previous month’s 1.6%.
Italy Inflation Forecast
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation of 1.4% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. For 2020, panelists expect inflation to average 1.5%, also unchanged from last month’s estimate.