Indonesia: Trade deficit reaches multi-year high in November, exports contract

According to Statistics Indonesia, the country recorded a trade deficit of USD 2.0 billion in November, far larger than markets had expected and contrasting the USD 0.2 billion surplus registered in the same month last year. November’s trade deficit was the highest in more than five years.

Exports contracted 3.3% over the same month last year in November, the first monthly decline since mid-2017. This came on the back of falling exports of gas and crude oil, with the latter likely impacted by the significant fall in world oil prices observed since September. At the same time, import growth was still robust at 11.7% year-on-year, although this marked the weakest pace since March, potentially dampened by recent government measures designed to reduce the import bill.

Indonesia Trade Balance Forecast

Panelists see exports and imports expanding 6.6% and 5.9% respectively in 2019, which would bring the trade balance to a USD 0.1 billion surplus. For 2020, the panel sees exports and imports growing 5.7% and 6.2% respectively, with a trade deficit of USD 1.0 billion.