Indonesia Trade Balance October 2022

Indonesia

Indonesia: Merchandise exports grow at a milder rate in October

November 22, 2022

Merchandise exports shot up 12.3% year-on-year in October (September: +20.2% year-on-year). October’s result marked the slowest growth since February 2021. Meanwhile, merchandise imports soared 17.4% in annual terms in October (September: +22.0% yoy), marking the weakest reading since February 2021.

As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month, recording a USD 5.7 billion surplus in October (September 2022: USD 5.0 billion surplus; October 2021: USD 5.8 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend deteriorated, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 50.0 billion surplus in October, compared to the USD 50.2 billion surplus in September.

Commenting on the outlook, Enrico Tanuwidjaja, economist at UOB, stated:

“We expect Indonesia to record a current account surplus amounting to 0.8% of GDP in 2022 before waning commodity prices, higher imports, higher services deficit, and higher primary deficit turn the CA position into a deficit of circa 0.5% of GDP in 2023.”

Our panelists forecast that in 2023 exports will decrease 2.5% and imports will rise 1.5%, with a trade surplus of USD 39.1 billion. In 2024, FocusEconomics panelists expect exports will expand 3.4%, while imports will rise 4.3%, with a trade surplus of USD 38.4 billion.


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Indonesia Trade August 2022

Note: 12-month trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of exports and imports over the last 12 months in %.
Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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