Indonesia Trade Balance September 2020


Indonesia: Merchandise exports decrease at a milder pace in September

October 15, 2020

Merchandise exports fell 0.5% annually in September (August: -8.2% year-on-year), as higher non-energy exports largely offset lower energy exports. Meanwhile, merchandise imports plummeted 18.9% in annual terms in September (August: -24.2% yoy), likely as domestic restrictions continued to weigh on demand. As a result, the merchandise trade balance recorded a USD 2.4 billion surplus in September (August: USD 2.4 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend improved, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 12.2 billion surplus in September, compared to the USD 9.5 billion surplus in August.

Looking ahead, export and import performance should gradually improve as the global recovery takes place and amid a supportive base effect, although the outlook is highly uncertain.

Our panelists forecast that in 2020 exports will decrease 9.2% and imports will decline 18.4%, with a trade surplus of USD 12.5 billion. In 2021, FocusEconomics panelists expect exports will expand 7.7%, while imports will rise 12.0%, with a trade surplus of USD 7.4 billion.


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Indonesia Trade Balance Chart

Indonesia Trade12m September 20 20

Note: 12-month trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of exports and imports over the last 12 months in %.
Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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