Indonesia Trade Balance May 2020

Indonesia

Indonesia: Exports and imports plummet in May, trade balance moves to surplus

June 15, 2020

Exports declined 28.9% year-on-year in May (April: -7.3% year-on-year) on lower energy and non-energy exports due to lockdowns abroad. Imports were down an ever sharper 42.2% (April: -18.6% yoy), driven by domestic containment measures, slowing investment and low oil prices. As a result, Indonesia recorded a trade surplus of USD 2.1 billion (April: 0.4 billion deficit).

Regarding the outlook for the external sector, analysts at Nomura commented:

“Exports should remain weak, consistent with our global growth forecasts and slower growth in Indonesia’s main trading partners. In addition, the negative terms-of-trade effects from lower commodity prices will remain a headwind, alongside falling tourism receipts as travel remains constrained by border controls around the globe. On the import side, we think the contraction in the coming months because of soft underlying domestic demand in Indonesia is unlikely to be as severe as in May [as] the government has already started to re-open the economy, allowing businesses to operate from early-June.”

Our panelists forecast that in 2020 exports will decrease 9.8% and imports will decline 13.0%, with a trade surplus of USD 2.5 billion. In 2021, FocusEconomics panelists expect exports will expand 8.5%, while imports will rise 10.6%, with a trade deficit of USD 0.5 billion.


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Indonesia Trade Balance Chart


Indonesia Trade12m May 20 20

Note: 12-month trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of exports and imports over the last 12 months in %.
Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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