Indonesia Retail September 2020

Indonesia

Indonesia: Decline in retail sales softens in September, but sharper fall forecast for October

November 11, 2020

Retail sales fell 8.8% in year-on-year terms in September, which was a smaller drop than August's 9.2% decrease. The print marked the best result since March. Looking at the details of the release, September's softer drop was broad-based, with food, beverages, and tobacco sales expanding at a faster pace, and, motor vehicles, parts and accessories and automotive fuels sub-sectors contracting at slower paces.

Meanwhile, the trend pointed down, with the annual average variation of retail sales coming in at minus 7.4%, down from August's minus 6.7%.

The Central Bank expects retail sales to have contracted a sharper 10.0% in October, amid tougher Covid-19 restrictions in Jakarta in the first half of the month. After a sharp fall in private consumption in Q3, October’s reading suggests weak consumer spending at the outset of the final quarter.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants see private consumption rising 4.9% in 2021, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2022, panelists see private consumption increasing 5.4%.


Author:, Economist

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Indonesia Retail October 20 20

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation in retail sales in %.
Source: Bank Indonesia (BI) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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