India Trade December 2018

India

India: Export growth slows in December

January 16, 2019

Merchandise export growth slowed to 0.3% in December, down from 0.8% in November. The slowdown was primarily due to a high base effect, while the expansion itself was underpinned by increased exports of electronic goods and petroleum products. Merchandise imports, meanwhile, decreased 2.4% in December, contrasting growth of 4.3% in November. This outturn was also explained by a high base effect and reflected fewer imports of gold and a substantially-moderated increase in oil imports.

The merchandise trade deficit was USD 13.1 billion in December, wider than the USD 14.1 billion shortfall in the same month a year earlier but narrower than the USD 16.7 billion deficit in the previous month. The 12-month trailing sum of the trade deficit narrowed to USD 183.2 billion in December from USD 184.3 billion in November, the first such narrowing since September 2017.

Our panelists forecast that exports will expand 12.2% in FY 2018 and imports will rise 15.5%, bringing the merchandise trade deficit to USD 193.0 billion. In FY 2019, we expect exports and imports will expand 6.1% and 5.1% respectively, which would result in a merchandise trade deficit of USD 200.0 billion.


Author:, Economist

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India Trade12m December 2018

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry and FocusEconomics calculations.


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