India Trade Balance May 2021


India: Merchandise exports rise at a softer pace in May

June 15, 2021

Merchandise exports jumped 69.4% over the same month last year in May, following April’s 195.7% jump. Meanwhile, merchandise imports soared 73.6% on an annual basis in May (April: +167.1% yoy). That said, both figures were highly flattered by favorable base effects. Compared to the same period in 2019, imports were down in May, likely as the domestic Covid-19 outbreak hurt demand.

As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month, recording a USD 6.3 billion shortfall in May (April 2021: USD 15.1 billion deficit; May 2020: USD 3.2 billion deficit). Lastly, the trend pointed down, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 110.0 billion deficit in May, compared to the USD 106.9 billion deficit in April.

In FY 2021, our panelists forecast that exports and imports will increase 14.1% and 26.0%, respectively, bringing the merchandise trade deficit to USD 159 billion. In FY 2022, our panelists forecast that exports and imports will increase 8.4% and 8.6%, respectively, resulting in a merchandise trade deficit of USD 173 billion.


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India Trade Balance Chart

India Trade12m May 2021

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry and FocusEconomics calculations.

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