India Trade Balance April 2020

India

India: Merchandise exports growth hits a record high in April

May 17, 2021

Merchandise exports increased a massive 195.7% in annual terms in April, on the heels of March’s 60.3% expansion. Meanwhile, merchandise imports rose 167.1% in annual terms in April (March: +53.7% yoy). April’s result was predominately flattered by a low base effect as the pandemic that began around this time last year dented global economic trade. The next few months will likely experience similar exaggerated growth figures.

Meanwhile, the merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous month, recording a USD 15.1 billion shortfall in April (March 2021: USD 13.9 billion deficit; April 2020: USD 6.8 billion deficit). Lastly, the trend deteriorated slightly, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 106.9 billion deficit in April, compared to the USD 98.6 billion deficit in March.

In FY 2021, our panelists forecast that exports and imports will increase 3.1% and 9.8%, respectively, bringing the merchandise trade deficit to USD 134 billion. In FY 2022, our panelists forecast that exports and imports will increase 9.8% and 10.6%, respectively, resulting in a merchandise trade deficit of USD 150 billion.


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India Trade Balance Chart


India Trade12m April 2021

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry and FocusEconomics calculations.


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