India Trade Balance October 2020


India: Merchandise exports contract in October

November 13, 2020

Merchandise exports fell 5.6% annually in October (September: +6.0% year-on-year). Meanwhile, merchandise imports dived 10.1% in annual terms in October (September: -17.8% yoy), marking the best result since February 2020.

As a result, the merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous month, recording a USD 8.7 billion deficit in October (September 2020: USD 2.7 billion deficit; October 2019: USD 11.0 deficit). Lastly, the trend improved, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 90.9 billion deficit in October, compared to the USD 93.2 billion deficit in September.

In FY 2020, our panelists forecast that exports and imports will decrease 14.2% and 24.2%, respectively, bringing the merchandise trade deficit to USD 85 billion. In FY 2021, our panelists forecast that exports and imports will increase 15.5% and 24.2%, respectively, resulting in a merchandise trade deficit of USD 129 billion.


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India Trade Balance Chart

India Trade12m October 20 20

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry and FocusEconomics calculations.

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