Hong Kong Retail July 2019

Hong Kong

Hong Kong: Retail sales remain dejected in July

August 30, 2019

Retail sales by volume dipped 13.0% year-on-year in July, a notable deterioration from June’s 7.6% contraction. July’s print comes amid ongoing mass protests which continue to negatively impact domestic demand.

The print was driven by a broad-based contraction in sales across all product categories, with particularly sharp declines for jewelry, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts .

On a seasonally-adjusted, three month-moving-average basis, retail sales volume in the May-July period fell 5.5% from the preceding three-month period ending in April, which posted a 2.8% decrease in the April-June period. Overall, the annual average variation in retail sales volume continued to slip, from growth of 0.3% in the 12 months up to June to a 1.3% decline in the period ending July. Looking ahead, private spending will likely remain depressed as a prolonged slowdown in the mainland and the trade war between China and the U.S weighs heavily on the external sector.

A government spokesman stated that:

“Retail sales will likely stay weak in the near term, as escalated US-Mainland trade tensions and subdued economic conditions continue to dampen consumer sentiment. The situation may even deteriorate further if the social incidents involving violence do not come to a stop.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect retail sales to decline 2.9% in 2019, which is down 2.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2019, the panel sees retail sales growing 2.0%.

Author:, Economist

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