Guatemala Remittances May 2021

Guatemala

Guatemala: Growth in remittances eases but remains elevated in May

June 8, 2021

Remittances totaled USD 1,236.7 million in May, jumping 47.8% year-on-year (April: +78..% yoy). In the 12 months up to May, remittances reached USD 13.0 billion, up from April’s USD 12.6 billion. The 12-month rolling sum marked a 25.5% increase from a year prior (April: 13.0% yoy). It should be noted, however, that the data continued to in part reflect a favorable base effect due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

Remittances are a key source of income for Guatemalan families and tend to follow employment trends in the United States, where the majority of remittance payments originate from. As such, the expected recovery in the U.S. amid vast government stimulus should boost remittances inflows and support the Guatemalan economy.

Analysts at The EIU added:

“After a 1.5% contraction in 2020 (low by regional standards) the economy will rebound in 2021 driven by a recovery in the US and record-high remittances inflows, which will support private consumption.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants see private consumption expanding 4.1% in 2021, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month, and increasing 3.5% in 2022.


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