Guatemala: Growth in remittances accelerates in February
March 7, 2019
Remittances from workers abroad rose 9.6% year-on-year in February, up from January’s 8.4% increase. Remittances came in at a total value of USD 690.5 million and growth in the 12-month moving sum accelerated to 13.9% from 13.4% in January. Looking at the first quarter, the available data for January and February suggest that private consumption growth should moderate in the quarter compared to the fourth quarter of last year—data on Q4 remains outstanding, however.
Remittances are a key source of income in the Central American country and usually follow employment trends in the United States, where most remittances originate. Moderating economic momentum in the United States should therefore lead to a more moderate pace of growth in remittances. A key downside risk to remittances growth is uncertainty over U.S. immigration policy.
Guatemala Private Consumption Forecast
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants see private consumption expanding 3.4% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2020, our panelists expect private consumption to increase 3.6%.
Author: Jan Lammersen, Economist