Guatemala GDP


Guatemala: Economic growth slows in Q4

April 15, 2015

In the last quarter of 2014, the economy expanded 4.4% over the same period of the previous year, inching down from the 4.7% increase tallied in the third quarter and marking the lowest growth rate in three quarters.

The deceleration that occurred in Q4 was the result of a slowdown in the external sector compared to the previous quarter, which was partially offset by an increase in domestic demand growth. Private consumption accelerated from Q3’s 3.3% increase to a 4.1% rise in Q4, while fixed investment shot up from a meager 0.6% increase in Q3 to a 9.3% expansion in Q4. In addition, government consumption inched up to a 6.6% rise in Q4 (Q3: +6.4% year-on-year).

On the external side of the economy, exports of goods and services grew 8.3% in Q4, which was markedly lower than Q3’s 14.8% expansion. In addition, imports decelerated to a 4.2% increase (Q3: +7.7% year-on-year). As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall growth decreased from plus 0.9 percentage points in Q3 to plus 0.6 percentage points in Q4. In the full year 2014, GDP growth came in at a healthy 4.2%, which was up from the 3.7% increase recorded in 2013 and marked the highest pace of growth since 2011.

The Central Bank expects the economy to grow 3.8% in 2015 and 3.7% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants see GDP growing 3.6% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists expect the economy to expand 3.4%.

Author:, Economist

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