Guatemala Economic Activity July 2022

Guatemala

Guatemala: Economic activity records slowest expansion since February 2021 in July

September 9, 2022

Economic activity rose 3.0% year on year in July (June: +3.5% yoy). July's outturn marked the worst reading since February 2021.

That said, activity was driven by the commerce and repair of vehicles, manufacturing, real estate, agricultural and financial sectors.

Analysts at the EIU added:

“Guatemala's economic growth will face headwinds both in 2023 and over the medium term from weakness in the US economy, which is the main market for Guatemalan exports and its principal source of remittances. […] We expect growth to average 3.1% in 2023-26, although there are several risks to this outlook. One is a steeper than forecast US downturn in the next two years, as this would constrain economic activity in Guatemala. Another is that global (and hence local) inflation fails to ease as expected, eroding consumer purchasing power even more than we currently expect.”

GDP is seen expanding 3.6% in 2022. For 2023, our panelists expect the economy to grow 3.1%.


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Guatemala Economic Activity July 2022

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of economic activity in %.
Source: Guatemala Central Bank and FocusEconomics calculations.


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