Guatemala Economic Activity September 2020

Guatemala

Guatemala: Economic activity posts softest contraction since February in September

November 6, 2020

Economic activity declined 0.3% in year-on-year terms in September, following August's 1.5% decrease. September's figure marked the smallest contraction since February.

Activity was dented by a drop in the accommodation and food services; trade and repair of vehicles; transportation and storage; construction sectors. On the other hand, growth in the manufacturing and agricultural limited the headline fall.

The data suggests that the economy has bottomed out, which bodes well for the final quarter. However, activity in the fourth quarter will likely be limited by a global resurgence in Covid-19 cases and renewed restrictions. Looking beyond 2020, the economy is forecast to recover next year as both domestic and foreign demand strengthen in the wake of the pandemic-induced downturn, but the outlook remains clouded amid lingering uncertainty regarding the evolution of the health crisis.

GDP is seen expanding 3.8% in 2021. For 2022, our panelists expect the economy to grow 3.1%.


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Guatemala Economic Activity September 20 20

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of economic activity in %.
Source: Guatemala Central Bank and FocusEconomics calculations.


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