Guatemala: Economic activity edges up at the close of the first quarter

Data from Banguat’s monthly index of economic activity (IMAE, Indice Mensual de la Actividad Económica) showed that in March economic activity contracted 0.1% from the prior month, contrasting February’s revised 1.3% expansion (previously reported: +0.9% month-on-month).

However, on a year-on-year basis, growth in economic activity inched up from the prior month’s revised 2.9% (previously reported: +3.0%) to 3.0% in March. The result was spearheaded by growth in the wholesale and retail trade sector, while the transportation, storage and communication sector also performed solidly. Meanwhile, annual average growth in economic activity was stable at the prior month’s reading of 2.8%.

Guatemala GDP Forecast

Banguat expects growth of 3.0%–3.8% in 2018 and 3.1%–4.1% in 2019. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect growth of 3.3% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2019, our panelists expect growth to clock in at 3.4%.