Ghana: May meeting sees no policy rate change
Central Bank holds interest rates: At its 21–23 May meeting, the Central Bank maintained the policy rate at 28.00%.
Decision influenced by above-target inflation and strong domestic activity: The decision to leave rates unchanged in May was primarily driven by domestic factors, notably the recent evolution of inflation and economic growth. On the one hand, inflation declined for a fourth consecutive month in April, supported by a tight monetary policy stance, the Central Bank’s mopping up of excess liquidity, downward revisions in petrol prices, and exchange rate stability. One the other hand, inflation remains significantly above target, requiring tight monetary policy to continue to support its downward trajectory. Moreover, economic activity growth picked up in March and the Bank was optimistic on the economic outlook, giving policymakers room to keep rates elevated.
Panelists see cuts resuming in Q3: The Central Bank provided no specific forward guidance at its May meeting. Still, our panelists expect cuts to resume in Q3, with the policy rate ending the year 150–600 basis points below its current level. The Bank will reconvene on 21–25 July.