Germany: Export growth rebounds in October
December 10, 2018
October trade data provided some relief amid questions over the state of the German economy. Exports swung from a revised 0.4% month-on-month contraction in September (previously reported: -0.8% month-on-month) to a 0.7% expansion in October. Imports grew 1.3% mom in October, up from a revised flat reading in the previous month (previously reported: -0.4% mom). The trade balance narrowed from EUR 17.6 billion in September to EUR 17.3 billion in October on a calendar and seasonally-adjusted basis.
Compared to the same month a year ago, exports rebounded strongly from a 1.0% contraction in September to a 8.5% expansion in October. As a result, the 12-month moving sum of exports increased 4.4% in October, up from 4.2% in September. Import growth, meanwhile, picked up pace to 11.3% in October from 5.6% in September. The 12-month moving sum of imports subsequently increased 6.5% in October from 6.2% in September. The 12-month moving sum of the trade balance narrowed from EUR 238.2 billion in September to EUR 235.2 billion in October.
Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING, states that “sluggish trade data over the summer months has cast doubts about the strength of the German export sector. [October’s] trade data brings some relief but also shows that there is still a long way to go before the traditional growth engine will be back at full strength. “
Author: Jan Lammersen, Economist