Germany Inflation November 2018

Germany

Germany: Inflation eases in November from an over ten-year high

December 13, 2018

Consumer prices increased 0.1% over the previous month in November, down from October’s 0.2% rise. The result reflected lower food; footwear; and apparel prices offsetting higher energy prices.

Inflation edged down to 2.3% in November from 2.5% in October, which had marked the highest reading in over ten years. Annual average inflation was stable at October’s 1.9% in November and harmonized inflation (HICP) eased from 2.4% in October to 2.2% in November.

Commenting on the November data, Carsten Brzeski, chief Germany economist at ING, noted that rising energy prices despite low crude oil prices was due to “the dry summer and low water levels in many German rivers, leading to logistical problems. [..] [When] lower oil prices finally reach German households, headline inflation should fall back under the 2%-mark […].”

This view reverberates the FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts panelists estimation. The panel sees CPI inflation averaging 1.9% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2020, our panel sees average inflation at 1.7%. In June, the Central Bank expected HICP inflation of 1.8% in 2019.


Author:, Economist

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Germany Inflation November 2018

Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year changes of consumer price index in %.
Source: Federal Statistics Office (Destatis) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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