Germany: Inflation rises in September from the prior month
Latest reading: Harmonized consumer prices rose 2.4% on a year-on-year basis in September, following a 2.1% increase in the previous month.
Relative to the previous month’s data, there were higher price pressures for transportation (+2.5% on a year-on-year basis vs +1.4% in August), recreation (+0.6% vs -0.2% in August) and restaurants and hotels (+3.7% vs +3.4% in August). In contrast, price pressures reduced for food and non-alcoholic beverages in September(+2.8% vs +3.1% in August). Finally, the change in housing and utilities prices was the same as in the prior month (+1.1% in September and August).
Meanwhile, consumer prices were up 2.4% in September, following a 2.2% rise in the previous month.
Lastly, harmonized consumer prices increased 0.23% in September in month-on-month terms, following a 0.08% rise in the previous month.
Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, ING’s Carsten Brzeski stated:
“Looking ahead, the stronger euro and still favourable energy base effects should push German inflation back towards – and below – 2% over the coming months. At the same time, the worsening labour market and AI will further moderate wage growth. Finally, while intuitively, US tariffs should also bring disinflationary pressures to Europe due to overcapacity and weaker sales in the US, globally operating companies might still try to actually increase prices in Europe to offset profit-squeezing in the US.”