Finland: Economic activity gathers pace in November despite slower services growth
January 16, 2018
In November, economic activity grew a working-day adjusted 3.5% compared to the same month of the previous year, up from October’s revised 3.2% increase (previously reported: +2.6% year-on-year). This is according to the latest monthly Trend Indicator of Output released by Statistics Finland on 16 January.
The year-on-year economic activity growth in November resulted from a faster expansion in secondary production—which includes manufacturing and construction activity. Secondary production grew by 6.4% compared to October’s revised 5.5% growth rate (previously reported: +4.8% yoy). On the other hand, services production, the most significant form of production in Finland, saw growth decelerate to 2.0% in November from October’s revised 2.3% (previously reported: +1.7% yoy). Primary production—which includes agriculture, hunting, forestry, and fishing activity—also deteriorated, swinging from October’s revised expansion of 1.4% (previously reported: +1.6% yoy) to a contraction of 0.2%.
A month-on-month comparison shows that economic activity grew a seasonally-adjusted 0.4% in November, an improvement over October’s revised result, which showed economic activity levels were unchanged from September (previously reported: -0.4% month-on-month). Annual average growth in economic activity was 3.5% in November, higher than October’s respectively revised 3.4% (previously reported: +3.3% annual average growth).
Finland GDP Forecast
The Central Bank expects the domestic economy to expand 2.5% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists, however, are somewhat more cautious for this year. They expect an expansion of 2.2% in 2018, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2019, the panel sees GDP increasing 1.9%, which is above the Central Bank’s forecast.
Author: Edward Gardner, Economist