Finland Economic Forecast

Finland Economic Outlook

November 20, 2018

The economy is having a good run this year. Preliminary economic growth was unchanged in Q3 compared to Q2 in quarter-on-quarter terms, which proved faster than the Euro-area average. Private consumption likely played a key part in the growth story in Q3 given that the unemployment rate fell to a five-and-a-half year low and consumer confidence remained high, even though it moderated slightly from the previous quarter. In terms of the external sector, the current account balance posted its best reading in three quarters in Q3, although it remained in a deficit. Meanwhile, protests in opposition to government employment law proposals were called off in late October by the Finnish Industrial Union. On 6 November, tripartite negotiations regarding these proposals—which included government, labor and business representatives—concluded with a consensus. Reduced risks of labor disruption bodes well for the economy in Q4.

Finland Economic Growth

While economic growth next year will remain underpinned by private consumption—buttressed in particular by a tighter labor market—the government’s ongoing fiscal consolidation will constrain public consumption growth. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP growth of 2.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.8% in 2020.

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Finland Facts

Bond Yield0.573.70 %Dec 11
Exchange Rate8.57-0.38 %Dec 12
Stock Market3,8350.0 %Dec 12

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