Eurozone: November PMI points to disappointing Q4 GDP reading
November 20, 2014
The flash estimate of the Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index came in at 51.4 in November. The result was down from both the 52.2 recorded in October and the 52.3 that market analysts expected. The composite PMI—the result of a survey of over 5,000 manufacturing and services businesses—deteriorated for the third time in the last four months, setting at the lowest level since July 2013. On a positive note, the index has now been above the 50-threshold that signals a stable economic outlook for the past 17 months.
October’s deterioration was underpinned by a weaker reading both in the manufacturing sector and the services sector. According to Markit, “[a] fall in the Eurozone PMI to a 16-month low raises the risk of the region slipping back into a renewed downturn. The single currency area is struggling to eke out any growth, with the PMI indicating that GDP is likely to have risen by just 0.1-0.2% in the fourth quarter.”
At a country level, Germany’s composite PMI slowed in November to 52.1, which was a moderation over the 53.9 recorded in October. The result marked the slowest reading since July 2013. France’s composite PMI fell from 48.5 in October to 47.6 in November, marking the sixth consecutive reading below 50 and a second consecutive slowdown. Meanwhile, the composite PMI for all the other countries slowed compared to the previous month.
Author: Armando Ciccarelli, Head of Data Solutions