Dominican Republic GDP Q4 2018

Dominican Republic

Dominican Republic: Strong final quarter caps stellar 2018

December 27, 2018

According to a preliminary estimate released by the Central Bank on 27 December, the economy expanded 7.1% in annual terms in the fourth quarter. Although this was down marginally from Q3’s 7.3% increase, it still marked another quarter of above-potential growth. The economy thus expanded 7.0% over 2018 as a whole, likely the strongest performance in the Central America and Caribbean region by some distance.

The fourth quarter’s performance was broad-based. Construction remained an important growth driver (Q4: +8.1% year-on-year; Q3: +9.2% yoy), thanks to private housing, tourism and energy diversification projects. Moreover, the service sector expanded robustly (Q4: +6.0% yoy; Q3: 6.4% yoy), with particularly fast growth in the communication, health and retail subsectors. The latter was likely supported by easy access to credit. The manufacturing sector had a mixed performance: While growth in local production accelerated, growth in production from duty-free zones dimmed notably in Q4.

Looking ahead, GDP growth is expected to moderate in 2019 after such a vigorous performance in 2018, on the back of a tough base effect and softer momentum in the U.S., which will have a knock-on effect on tourism and remittances growth. However, the economic performance will remain strong compared to regional peers, thanks to robust fixed investment and private consumption.

Last month, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants saw the economy growing 5.0% in 2019 and 4.6% in 2020. A new Consensus Forecast will be published on 15 January.

Author:, Economist

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Dominican Republic GDP Chart

Dominican Republic GDP Q4  2018

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Dominican Republic Central Bank and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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