Dominican Republic GDP Q1 2020

Dominican Republic

Dominican Republic: Economic activity flatlines in Q1

May 15, 2020

According to preliminary data from the Central Bank, the economy flatlined in the first quarter, down from robust 5.8% growth in Q4. The reading was driven by a sharp contraction in economic activity in March (-9.4% year-on-year) amid lockdown measures both at home and abroad, which offset strong growth in January–February. Domestic lockdown measures included the closure of non-essential activities, a nighttime curfew, border closures and transport restrictions. Looking at the sector-by sector picture, hotels, bars and restaurants; mining; construction and transport suffered the largest declines in Q1.

The economy is seen contracting over 2020 as a whole due to domestic containment measures and recession abroad weighing on exports, tourism and remittances. However, the Central Bank’s expansionary monetary policy—reflected by private-sector credit growth of 13.2% at end-April—should soften the decline.

Our panelists see the economy shrinking 2.9% in 2020, down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and expanding 4.5% in 2021.


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Dominican Republic GDP Chart

Dominican Republic GDP Q1  20 20

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Dominican Republic Central Bank and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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