Denmark: Flash estimate suggests economy grew at solid pace in final quarter of 2018
February 14, 2019
According to a flash estimate released on 14 February, GDP grew 0.8% in seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms in the fourth quarter, up from the 0.7% increase logged in the third quarter. However, given that Statistics Denmark estimates uncertainty regarding Q4’s final print to be at least plus or minus 0.5 percentage points, the preliminary reading should be taken with a grain of salt. In year-on-year terms, the economy grew 2.3% in Q4 2018, matching Q3’s print. Overall, Statistics Denmark estimates GDP grew 1.1% in 2018, down noticeably from the 2.3% growth logged in 2017, although the institute noted that pending data revisions should see the final print rise.
According to Statistics Denmark, the industry and transport sectors were the main drivers of the uptick. Meanwhile, construction growth, while still solid, moderated in the fourth quarter, and the services growth remained relatively stable. While a breakdown by expenditure has yet to be released, a tight labor market should have buttressed private consumption. Moreover, a favorable base effect should have boosted fixed investment spending, while the external sector likely also fared well.
Comprehensive Q4 data will be published on 28 February.
Author: Lindsey Ice, Economist