Denmark: Economy rebounds in Q4 following the worst contraction in six years
February 14, 2018
Preliminary data released by Statistics Denmark indicates that the economy bounced back in the fourth quarter from the contraction observed in Q3. In seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms, GDP grew 0.9% (Q3: -0.5% quarter-on-quarter). This performance can, however, be partially attributed to the previous quarter’s poor showing. The advance estimate for Q4 puts the growth rate in 2017 as a whole at 2.0%, matching 2016’s growth rate. It should be noted that the preliminary data is likely to be revised when comprehensive quarterly national accounts data is released on 28 February.
Solid progress was observed in the external sector thanks to robust growth in service exports, mainly due to increased exports of maritime transport services. Industrial production also expanded on a quarterly basis, with additional data indicating that the construction sector was particularly dynamic. On the other hand, private service industries performed less robustly, which was reflected in limp retail sales for Q4.
Denmark GDP Forecast
The Central Bank expects the economy to grow 1.8% in 2018 and 1.7% in 2019. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists are slightly more upbeat and expect growth to reach 1.9% in 2018. For 2019, the panel estimates the economy will grow 1.8%.
Author: Joffrey Simonet, Economist