Colombia Trade Balance February 2021

Colombia

Colombia: Exports flatline in February

April 6, 2021

Merchandise exports flatline in February, improving from January’s 24.1% year-on-year collapse, and logging the best reading in more than a year. February’s improvement was largely owing to a notably softer contraction in fuel shipments. Meanwhile, exports of both agricultural and manufacturing products swung back into expansion with the latter growing prominently.

Meanwhile, merchandise imports tumbled 12.5% in annual terms in January, the last month for which data is available, contrasting December 2020’s 0.7% growth. As a result, the merchandise trade deficit widened to USD 1.0 billion in January from USD 0.7 billion in January 2020. Lastly, the trend deteriorated further, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 10.4 billion deficit in January, compared to the USD 10.1 billion deficit tallied in December 2020.

Commenting on the outlook for current account balance analysts at EIU noted:

“Colombia will run ample current-account deficits over the coming years, supported by a strong cushion of foreign reserves. The current-account deficit will remain wide in 2021, at 3.3% of GDP, as resilient inflows of workers' remittances and goods exports will only partly counter a modest recovery in goods imports and profit remittances.”

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists project merchandise exports to expand 14.3% in 2021, and merchandise imports to grow 13.7%, resulting in a USD 8.8 billion trade deficit. In 2022 our panel estimates merchandise exports and imports to grow 9.4% and 7.2% respectively, with a trade deficit of USD 8.6 billion.


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Colombia Exports February 2021

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation in %.
Source: Colombia National Statistical Office (DANE).


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