Colombia: Economic activity growth eases but exceeds market estimates in April
Latest reading: Economic activity growth eased to 1.1% year on year in April from March’s 4.6% print and marked the worst reading since November 2024. Still, the result largely reflected calendar effects due to the timing of the Holy Week this year, and was above market expectations. April’s slowdown was broad-based: The services sector—which makes up over half of GDP—grew at the softest pace in five months, and industry and agriculture contracted after expanding in March.
As a result, annual average economic activity growth fell to 1.9% in April (March: +2.2%), pointing to a worsening trend.
On a monthly basis, economic activity grew 1.6% in seasonally adjusted terms in April, rebounding from March’s 0.7% fall and surprising market analysts on the upside.
Panelist insight: Goldman Sachs’ Santiago Tellez commented:
“We anticipate growth to soften to below-trend rates in the coming months. This is partly due to the skew towards private consumption, which we suspect was supported by external factors (slowing remittances, tourism) that may moderate. Rising domestic policy uncertainty, owing to the unsettled political backdrop, also contributes to our base case for moderation. Real credit remains below 2022 levels and continues to contract on an annual basis, reflecting a restrictive policy stance.”