China Retail November 2018


China: Growth in retail sales decelerates to multi-year low in November

December 14, 2018

In November, nominal retail sales grew 8.1% on an annual basis, a deceleration from the 8.6% expansion registered in October and the lowest reading since 2003. The print was well below market expectations of an 8.8% increase. November’s print was driven by a fall in sales of automobiles as well as weaker sales of catering- and petroleum-related products.

On a seasonally-adjusted basis, retail sales expanded 0.51% in November, edging down from the revised 0.63% increase in October (previously reported: +0.64% month-on-month). Meanwhile, annual average growth in retail sales inched down from 9.3% in October to 9.1% in November.

China Retail Sales Forecast

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect retail sales to increase 9.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. In 2020, the panel foresees retail sales expanding 8.9%.

Author:, Economist

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China Retail Chart

China Retail November 2018 2

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted nominal retail sales index and year-on-year variation in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, annual figures for January and February are reported together.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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