China Retail October 2018


China: Growth in retail sales decelerates to five-month low in October

November 14, 2018

In October, nominal retail sales grew 8.6% on an annual basis, a deceleration from the 9.2% expansion registered in September and the lowest reading in five months. The print was well below market expectations of a 9.1% increase. October’s print was driven by weaker sales of household appliances, clothing and footwear and food. Despite decelerating slightly, sales of petroleum and petroleum-related products remained robust in October. Meanwhile, car sales contracted at a softer pace in October.

On a seasonally-adjusted basis, retail sales expanded 0.64% in October, edging up from the 0.56% increase in September. Annual average growth in retail sales inched down from 9.4% in September to 9.3% in October.

China Private Consumption Forecast

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect retail sales to increase 9.3% in 2019, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2020, the panel foresees retail sales expanding 9.0%.


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China Retail Chart

China Retail October 2018

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted nominal retail sales index and year-on-year variation in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, annual figures for January and February are reported together.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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