China: Seasonal surge in new yuan loans in January
February 13, 2018
Chinese banks extended CNY 2.90 trillion (USD 458 billion) in new yuan loans in January, well above December’s CNY 584 billion. The print overshot the CNY 2.10 trillion markets had expected and was the highest reading on record. In the 12 months up to January, new yuan loans totaled CNY 14.4 trillion (December: CNY 13.5 trillion). The increase reflected seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year holidays and Chinese banks front-loading loans early in the year to gain market share
Total social financing (TSF)—a broader measure of credit and liquidity in the economy that includes loans, bonds and other non-traditional instruments— jumped from December’s CNY 1.14 trillion to CNY 3.06 trillion in January.
Meanwhile, annual growth in M2—the broadest measure of money supply in China—rose from December’s all-time low of 8.2% to 8.6%. The reading came in above the 8.4% that market analysts had expected.
China Money Supply M2 Forecast
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect M2 to expand 9.0%, in 2018 which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2019, the panel sees M2 growth of 9.1%.