China: Investment growth turns around in September; a slight reprieve following a six-month slowdown
October 19, 2018
Urban fixed asset investment in China expanded 5.4% annually in the first nine months of the year, up marginally from the 5.3% increase in the first eight months of the year, which had been the weakest print since the early 1990s. Moreover, the figure was above market expectations of 5.3% growth.
The slight uptick in fixed asset investment growth was primarily the result of stronger investment in the secondary sector, which hit an over-two year high in the period. Furthermore, investment in the primary sector eased, but remained strong nonetheless. Meanwhile, investment growth in the tertiary and real estate sectors decelerated in the January–September period.
In terms of ownership, investment growth in fixed assets of private companies rose at the same rate as in August in the nine-month period, whereas growth in those of state-owned enterprises accelerated marginally.
On a month-on-month basis, investment in urban fixed assets rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.43% in September, which was largely unchanged from August’s revised 0.41% expansion (previously recorded: +0.44% month-on-month).
China Fixed Investment Forecast
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect fixed asset investment to grow 5.8% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2020, the panel sees fixed asset investment growth at 5.7%.
Author: Lindsey Ice, Economist