China Investment April 2020

China

China: Drop in nominal fixed investment continues to moderate in January-April

May 15, 2020

Nominal urban fixed asset investment fell 10.3% in the first four months of the year compared to the same period in 2019. The print followed the 16.1% year-to-date drop in March and was broadly in line with the 10.0% contraction that market analysts had expected.

Although all sub-categories posted sizeable contractions in the January-April period, the declines were less steep than in the previous month, especially in the primary and tertiary sectors. In terms of ownership, investment in fixed assets of state-owned enterprises posted a much softer decline in the period compared to the still-large drop in investment among private companies.

On a month-on-month basis, investment in urban fixed assets rose a seasonally-adjusted 6.2% in April, following the 6.1% rise in March.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect nominal fixed-asset investment to grow 2.4% in 2020, which is down 2.2 percentage points from last month’s Consensus. In 2021, the panel sees nominal fixed-asset investment growth at 6.9%.


Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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China Investment April 20 20

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted urban fixed-asset investment index and annual growth rate (year-to-date) in %.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS).


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