Chile: Economic activity remains elevated in May
July 5, 2018
Economic activity rose 4.9% year-on-year in May, according to the Monthly Indicator for Economic Activity (IMACEC) published by the Central Bank of Chile. The result came in below the previous month’s multi-year high of 5.9%, but comfortably overshot analysts’ expectations of a more modest 3.0%–4.0% rise. Despite falling short of the April’s high, the print in May marked the second most robust expansion in economic activity in nearly five years and confirmed that growth momentum carried over into May.
The expansion was driven by robust non-mining activity, with the non-mining index up 6.9% in annual terms in May (April: +6.2% year-on-year) on buoyant trade and services activity. Meanwhile, mining IMACEC growth remained broadly stable from the previous month, increasing 4.7% in May (April: +4.6% yoy).
In seasonally-adjusted terms, economic activity swung from a 0.4% contraction in April to 0.7% growth in May.
Chile GDP Forecast
The Central Bank sees GDP expanding between 3.0% and 4.0% in 2018, and between 3.3% and 4.3% in 2019. FocusEconomics panelists see growth of 3.5% in 2018, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.3% in 2019.
Author: Almanas Stanapedis, Research Team Manager