Chile: Economic activity growth broadly stable in August
October 5, 2018
Economic activity rose 3.2% year-on-year in August, marginally down from the previous month’s 3.3% increase, according to the IMACEC monthly economic activity index published by the Central Bank of Chile. As a result, the index edged down to a fresh year-to-date low in August, pointing to a deceleration in the first two months of Q3 from growth in the second quarter. The print was broadly in line with the expectations of market analysts.
August’s reading was driven by strong non-mining activity growth offsetting a weak performance in the mining sector. The non-mining index rose 4.0% in annual terms in August (July: +3.8% yoy), bolstered by solid growth in the services and commerce sectors. Mining activity, on the other hand, continued to deteriorate in August: The mining index fell 5.1% year-on-year, down from 2.3% in July.
In seasonally-adjusted terms, economic activity fell 0.1% month-on-month in August, swinging from a modest 0.2% expansion in July. Meanwhile annual average economic activity growth edged up to 4.0% in August from 3.9% in July, marking a near four-year high.
Chile GDP Forecast
The Central Bank sees GDP expanding between 4.0%–4.5% in 2018, and between 3.3%–4.3% in 2019. FocusEconomics panelists see growth of 3.9% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.5% in 2019, unchanged from last month month’s estimate.
Author: Almanas Stanapedis, Research Team Manager